NFL matchup predictor

Pick the two teams. The page runs four independent models on past results, then blends them with betting odds and any outside models you add, and returns a win probability.

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Betting odds

Closing or current lines already reflect injuries, lineups and news, so this is the strongest input. Enter American moneylines, or fetch a consensus.

Live fetching is off. Add an Odds API key in config.php to enable it.

Other models

Type Home team's win % from public models such as ESPN FPI, the Silver Bulletin or FTN. These sites have no free feed, so you paste the number.

Injury adjustments

Applies to the four results-based models only. Enter points of spread lost, as a negative number, for example -4 if a starting quarterback is out. The odds already include this.

Every prediction is saved. Once game results are imported in admin, this shows how often the picks were right.
Backtest on 284 games from the 2025 season, each predicted using only earlier results and no betting odds: the four-model blend picked 63.7% correctly with Brier 0.223. The best single model (Elo rating) scored 64.1% with Brier 0.223.